Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
